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Not a single other Raptor this season has a usage rate of even 20 percent. The only other high-usage player on the squad was DeMar DeRozan. In Toronto, Gay was brought in to be the star. Guys with 25 percent usage rates aren't role players. As you take more shots, the rate of easy shots available does not increase, so it's totally natural to be less efficient the more shots you take.įor Rudy, the average efficiency cut-off appears to be around 25 percent. That matches league norms: players with the lowest usage rates are taking only the easiest shots, usually. The higher his usage, the lower his efficiency. If we take the annual progression out of it and compare Gay's efficiency only to his usage on an annual basis, we get an interesting snapshot.īy this view, in the three seasons - not including his rookie year - in which Gay had usage rates below 25 percent, he was more efficient than league average! (Not by much, but still.) In the four seasons he's been above 25 percent in usage, he's been below league average in efficiency. Learn more in Oliver's seminal book Basketball On Paper.) What if we remix this and look at a skill curve with Gay's efficiency and usage? (Dean Oliver, a former Nuggets and Sonics consultant, developed skill curves in an attempt to see relationships between usage and efficiency on an individual level. Based on that chart, Gay will only get worse.Īs noted, despite the efficiency drops plummets, Gay has been taking more shots than ever. And shooting percentage is important, lest you think teams get an unlimited number of shots per game.īased on that chart, the Kings are doomed and the Raptors were lucky to survive.
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This isn't some New Age woo analytics: shooting efficiency is an accurate look at shooting percentage.
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He should be getting better! But he's been getting less and less efficient, which is not a small thing. He's not supposed to be getting worse as he enters his age-based prime. This is all despite ever-falling efficiency rates, seemingly triggered by a nasty little shoulder injury in early 2011. The highest-usage players in the league top out around 32 percent.) In the final few months of the 2012-13 season in Toronto, Gay sported a usage rate of 29.1 percent. If all five players used possessions equally, they'd have 20 percent usage rates. (That means that he used 25.6 percent of all Memphis possessions while on the court. He was the featured scorer alright: his highest full-season usage rate in Memphis had been 25.6 percent. The Raptors' Gay experience was doomed precisely because Colangelo brought him in to be a featured scorer. The Raptors traded assets for Gay 10 months ago and dumped his salary completely on Sunday.
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None of the four new Raptors would be considered prospects it's unlikely any of them will sign new contracts with Toronto. Patterson is an NBA rotation player, but struggled all season. Vasquez is a nice piece, but trading him opens the starting point guard spot for Isaiah Thomas. But unlike the Raptors, the Kings gave up basically nothing to take on Gay: three expiring contracts ( John Salmons, Greivis Vasquez and Patrick Patterson) and a troublesome contract that extends into next season ( Chuck Hayes). On Sunday, Masai Ujiri, Colangelo's successor, ended that gamble, trading Gay to the Sacramento Kings. 12/2: Pelicans will miss Anthony Davis dearly